Weekly market update 01-12-2023
01 December 2023 | Blog This week shares overbought but with more upside; more good news on inflation and rates; Australian inflation could be 3 point something by Dec; expect the RBA to hold but remain hawkish; and more. Read more
Oliver's insights - Australian dollar
27 November 2023 | Blog Five reasons to expect the Australian dollar to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; short term interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative; commodities still look to have entered a new super cycle; and Australia has a solid current account surplus. Read more
Weekly market update 24-11-2023
24 November 2023 | Blog Sharemarkets continued to rally this week, as US bond yields fell, economic data was mixed but indicated no urgency for higher interest rates along with communication from most central banks that signalled policymakers are in no rush to raise interest rates further for now. Read more
Econosights - Australia's high population growth
23 November 2023 | Blog There has been a lot of focus on the record high level of Australia’s population growth in 2023 from the boom in immigration. We look at the impact of high population growth on the economy in this Econosights. Read more
Oliver's insights - nine key things for successful investing
20 November 2023 | Blog Successful investing is not always easy and can be stressful. Even in good times. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things in mind. Read more
Weekly market update 17-11-2023
17 November 2023 | Blog Shares up in the US, Eurozone and Japan but not in China; inflation is continuing to fall about as quickly as it went up; Australian wages & jobs are proving to be not strong enough for another RBA hike; and more. Read more
Weekly market update 10-11-2023
10 November 2023 | Blog Deputy Chief Economist, Diana Mousina comments bond yields drifting higher which is putting pressure on equities; RBA hikes again after a 4-month hiatus and lifts inflation and growth forecasts noticeability; and more. Read more
Econosights - rate hikes and US housing market
07 November 2023 | Blog The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 525 basis points (or 5.25%) since March 2022, which has been the fastest tightening cycle in the US since the late 1980s. We look at the impact of these interest rate increases on the US housing market in this edition of Econosights. Read more
Weekly market update 3-11-2023
03 November 2023 | Blog It has been observed that shares were helped by strong US earnings and seasonality; record population growth boosting Aust retail sales; RBA likely to hike again on Tuesday - but its a close call; and more. Read more
Oliver's insights - Australian housing market
01 November 2023 | Blog Australian home prices rose again in October, with the supply shortfall on the back of record immigration dominating. While this is likely to continue, there is a high risk that the impact of high interest rates will start to get the upper hand next year particularly if the RBA hikes again and unemployment rises by more than expected. Read more
Weekly market update 27-10-2023
27 October 2023 | Blog This week shares remain under pressure; central banks at or near the top; but RBA likely to hike again - although there remains a strong case for it to "wait and see". Read more
Oliver's insights - medium term returns
24 October 2023 | Blog Since 1999 nominal returns have been more constrained averaging 6.2% pa as we entered a lower return world with real returns averaging 3.6% pa. The odds are that returns are likely to be even more constrained over the next 5 to 10 years. This article looks at why. Read more
Econosights - geopolitics
23 October 2023 | Blog Geopolitical events tend to create volatility in financial markets and as a result, investors have become more interested in geopolitical risks over the past few years. We look at the impact of geopolitics on financial markets in this edition of Econosights. Read more
Weekly market update 20-10-2023
20 October 2023 | Blog The new highs in bond yields are putting increasing pressure on share market valuations; the conflict in Israel presents a dilemma for central banks; the high risk of another RBA rate hike, which will add to recession risk; and more. Read more
Bonds are Back
18 October 2023 | Blog In this AMP Investments webinar, hear from Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist, give an overview of the current macro-economic backdrop, followed by Chris Baker, Portfolio Manager, who provides a deep dive on the current fixed income environment. Read more
Oliver's insights - oil and petrol prices
17 October 2023 | Blog The war in Israel is terrible from a humanitarian perspective. From an economic and investment perspective the concern is that it will lead to a surge in oil prices that will add to inflation, keep interest rates higher for longer and add to the risk of recession. Read more
Weekly market update 13-10-2023
13 October 2023 | Blog This week Dr Shane Oliver analyses where we have seen the bottom in shares; US September inflation will keep the Fed on edge; the impacts of the Israeli war & petrol prices; upside wage growth risks in Australia; and more. Read more
Econosights - wages breakout
12 October 2023 | Blog Australia’s labour market has held up better than expected, despite the biggest interest rate hiking cycle since the late 1980s. Recently released data on newly lodged Enterprise Bargaining Agreements are showing a spike in wages growth which are increasing concerns that a wages breakout will threaten the inflation outlook. Read more
Oliver's insights - risks for shares
10 October 2023 | Blog This edition of Oliver's Insights looks at the impact of rising bond yields on shares, the risks flowing from the renewed conflict in Israel and comparisons to the run up to the 1987 share crash. Read more
Weekly market update 06-10-2023
06 October 2023 | Blog Global share market fell again over the last week; investor sentiment has fallen sharply; concerning signs in RBA Financial Stability Review; slowing consumer spending in Australia; and more. Read more
Weekly market update 29-09-2023
29 September 2023 | Blog This week Dr Shane Oliver observes that shares are still at short term correction risk from rising bond yields; US Government shutdown is increasing uncertainty about the US economy and fiscal policy; RBA to hold but 40% risk of another hike by year end; and more. Read more
Oliver's insights - how do valuations look now
26 September 2023 | Blog It’s logical that the cheaper you buy an asset the higher its prospective return might be. However, this is frequently forgotten with investors often tempted to project recent returns into the future regardless of valuations. A valuation measure for an asset is basically a guide to whether it’s expensive or cheap. Read more
Econosights - Australia and the Chinese economy
25 September 2023 | Blog It is commonly accepted that Australia is highly dependent on the Chinese economy because of demand for Australian mineral resources and agriculture. Does this mean that the recent weakness in the Chinese economy will also weigh down on Australian economic growth? Read more
Weekly market update 22-09-2023
22 September 2023 | Blog Shares are maintaining under pressure from rising bond yields; central banks at or near the top - but many signalling higher for longer; US Government shutdown risk; the measures to boost Australian housing supply; Australian August inflation to rise; and more. Read more
Oliver's insights - immigration and housing
20 September 2023 | Blog Dr Shane Oliver discusses the key drivers of poor housing affordability in Australia and particularly the role played by high immigration levels. Read more
Weekly market update 15-09-2023
15 September 2023 | Blog There has been a "dovish rate hike" from ECB; the surging Australian population has added to the housing shortfall; petrol price rise another hit to consumers; and more. Read more
Oliver's insights - RBA and the Australian economy
13 September 2023 | Blog While the risk in the short term is still on the upside for rates or a delay to the start of rate cuts, our base case is that rates will be on hold until early next year ahead of rate cuts starting in the March quarter. Read more
Weekly market update 08-09-2023
08 September 2023 | Blog Shares failed to break above late July highs and have starrted to come under pressure again; concerns on China's economy and its plans to extend iPhone ban; Australia's growth slowdown should head off any more RBA rate hikes; and more. Read more
Econosights - will inflation have a resurgence
07 September 2023 | Blog While it may seem like the fight against inflation has been won by central banks, some recent leading indicators of inflation have ticked up again which could indicate that inflation may have a resurgence in late 2023/early 2024 which could take financial markets by surprise. Read more
Oliver's insights - optimism as an investor
04 September 2023 | Blog It seems that the worry list for investors has become more threatening and confusing. However, to succeed, it makes sense to err on the side of cautious optimism: otherwise, there is no point in investing; growth assets like shares have trended up over the long term; and trying to get the timing right of the 2 or 3 years out of 10 when they fall can be very hard. Read moreSubscribe to our newsletter
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