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Global share markets had a volatile ride over the last week with some sharp falls amidst increasing worries about tech valuations and overinvestment in AI, some weak US jobs data & ongoing fears of a US strike on Iran, but then a rebound in US and Eurozone shares on Friday as dip buying kicked in.

In this Econosights we look at some of the key headlines that have been impacting financial markets in early 2026 and what the implications are for investors.

The RBA’s decision to hike rates to 3.85% was no surprise with it being about 70% factored in by the money market and 22 of the 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a hike.

Global shares were mixed over the last week amidst ongoing US tariff threats, fears of a US strike on Iran, some mixed US earnings news and volatility in the US dollar.

As Winston Churchill is said to have said “if you put two economists in a room, you get two opinions...” Or “if you laid all the economists in the world end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion” as often attributed to George Bernard Shaw.

Reflecting the global uncertainty Australian shares also fell but only by around 0.4% for the week, which is not bad given they rose 2.1% the week before. The falls in the local market were led by financial, property and consumer shares offsetting gains in utility and resources stocks.

Despite uncertainty around US President Trump’s policies, geopolitics and interest rates, 2025 saw strong investment returns on the back of falling interest rates, solid economic and profit growth globally and expectations for stronger profit growth in Australia. AI enthusiasm boosted US shares although they were relative underperformers globally.

US shares fell 0.4% with an ongoing rotation out of tech shares and a reduction in Fed rate cut expectations. Chinese shares also fell 0.6%. But Eurozone and Japanese shares continued to make new highs, up 0.5% and 3.8% respectively. Australian shares also rose with a gain of 2.1% powered by resources shares on the back of higher commodity prices, retailers on the back of stronger than expected household spending and financials.

The near-term market implication of the US intervention were modest. Sharemarkets rose slightly as analysts took the view that this was a contained geopolitical event, energy stocks rose on expectations of higher future oil production, oil prices were up but only slightly while safe havens like gold and silver rose on more geopolitical news.

In 2025, Taylor Swift told us about her “Wi$h LiSt” in her latest “Life of a Showgirl” album but what would an economist wish for in 2026? Here is an economist’s wish list!

Global shares were mixed over the last week. US shares were initially dragged lower by ongoing AI bubble worries but rose later in the week helped by lower-than-expected inflation data and a solid outlook from a key tech company, leaving them up 0.1% for the week.